Part one, written earlier, is my disclaimer and confession of my perspective. The following is my argument.
I think that there is no real doubt that David Cameron is an extremely capable politician. The rise of the Conservative party does seem somewhat unstoppable at the moment. I really hope this is not true. Not simply for party political reasons but because I honestly believe that Cameron would be extremely damaging to this country as Prime Minister.
The current Conservative strategy involves relatively little policy, encouraging and capitalising on the government's unpopularity and promoting the received wisdom that Labour cannot manage the economy.
The received wisdom that they intend to propagate is that a Labour government always equals economic mismanagement. This is quite simply brilliant political strategy, because if it works it will win not only the next general election but the one after as well. Massive cuts in the public service and almost any policy in the next 6 years can be excused by the statement "the economy was so bad when we came to power that we had no choice..." The genius of it is obvious. There's one small problem, though - it's not true. However I do fear it will be successful.
Let's try an imagination trip. I want you to imagine with me, what the country would be like if we'd had a Conservative government for the last 12 years.
Much has been said ad nauseum about the root causes of the current world economic situation but two things are indisputable. Firstly, it is a world economic crisis with origins in some absolutely crazy decisions made in American financial institutions. A large number of first world banks (including many British ones) are extremely culpable because they made what are now clearly foolish decisions. Now we find ourselves in a situation whereby in order to survive, as a nation we are borrowing massive amounts of money and the national debt is expanding amazingly. The figures involved are both scary and astounding.
So, what would have been different if we'd had a Conservative government?
Firstly the banks were under-regulated - that is clear to all, but it would have been worse under Prime Minister Major or Hague or Duncan-Smith or Howard. All through the last decade the Conservative party maintained their mantra that the government's over-regulation was strangling business. It's worth remembering which party first deregulated the city in the 80's.
The subject of the national debt is one of much concern and much misinformation. Clearly more debt is bad but as a proportional of GDP (National wealth) our current debt level is still the second lowest of the G8 economies. Secondly, the official opposition opposed vociferously the decision by then chancellor Gordon Brown to use the money generated from selling 3G licences to mobile phone companies to reduce the national debt by £30bn.
Part of the argument is that the government spent too much money over the last decade and thus stored up this huge debt problem. This argument sounds very compelling initially, one merely has to look at how much public expenditure has increased and how much debt we now have to come to this conclusion. However it is deeply flawed for two reasons. Firstly, much of the increase is expenditure was absolutely vital - more of that later. And secondly the idea that the public finances would be better with a Conservative government is somewhat laughable. The Conservative Party argued then that the money should have been given away in tax cuts. Now the macro-economic effects are difficult to see - and impossible to quantify completely but you would have to argue that the economy as a whole would be significantly better off for the public finances to be in a genuinely better shape if Ken Clarke had been Chancellor in 2001. So we would have the same public debt but without the much needed investment in the public sector over the last 10 years.
Public Sector Investment
Now, I speak as one of these feather-bedded public sector workers who enjoys a final-salary pension scheme on the backs of the poor private sector workers...
I can only speak for the NHS properly as that is my direct experience. There are several things I don't like about the health service and much of the political interference is frustrating but there is no doubt that the NHS is much better than it was 10 years ago. Much needed capital investment, sensible rather than ridiculous waiting lists. The huge ideological shift to actually spending money on our public services was and is hugely significant. Since 1979 we have been told that the private sector is always better than the public one. To anyone who thinks that please take a good look at the banks.
I think it worth noting, that whilst all of us intrinsically want to pay less tax and whilst there is no doubt that there are things the government spends money on that I'd prefer they didn't. I think it needs to be said how much of a bargain taxes really are. The NHS provides total healthcare. We have a massive road and railway network, despite all the controversy our schools are actually among the best in the world and our universities attract applicants from every continent. It seems to me that most in Britain have no idea how bad things are in the third world and how amazing it is to have all the things we have.
The NHS, education, Surestart programs are all things that will probably be slashed by an in-coming Conservative government. The very rich will be ok. The moderately well off will buy private healthcare and education, possibly noting that it's actually more expensive for them to do it this way, possibly not and the poor will be left behind.
The idea that the Government didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining is laughable when you look at how under-invested in much of our infrastructure was. The reason why there was such a large expansion in public sector expenditure was because it was so needed. Do we really want to go back to doctors working 120 hours a week and kids being taught in portacabins that leak?
The economic crisis is worldwide and whilst there is some blame for the government - there's a lot to go round - the idea that a Conservative government would have done better is somewhat doubtful, particularly when you look at the potential bank collapse that was only just avoided last year. In 30 years time when historians look back at 2008-9, regardless of everything else, the saving of the banks will be the most significant decision made. If the opposition is to be believed on what they said, then they wouldn't have stepped in to save the banks.
There is much this government has done that is somewhat disappointing to me, on the other hand their achievements have been seriously under-rated; The Human Rights Act, NHS spending (nursing salaries and doctor's pay both significantly increased), Education, the minimum wage, devolution, justice for miners afflicted with lung disease, Military intervention in the Balkans and Sierra Leone...
The received wisdom is wrong. A Conservative government now would be in a much worse state and if they win next year, will do what I believe is significant damage to our country if they win.
That is why I am posting because these thoughts, I expect debate, I expect disagreement but let's talk about it. I think it does really matter, the decisions taken in the next 5 years by our government will affect all of us and probably have effects lasting for more than a generation.
End of Party Political Broadcast by the alien....