Here's an update as to where we are as of 14th February 2021. (See previous posts for details of the methodology).
The horizontal line represents the death rate (and thus by inference a proxy for infection prevalence) when the Lockdown was relaxed in May 2020. This is the earliest it would be safe to relax this Lockdown (I would argue for another week beyond this point). There is one caveat to this that the inferred infection rate may be different in March '21 compared with May '20 as the Case Fatality Rate is lower and thus the death rate corresponds to a higher infection level. Conversely large sections of the population will be vaccinated so it's not clear what the correct point is. However, as always in this pandemic, erring on the side of caution seems very wise.
AFZ
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