Two and half years ago, I wrote this: Is this election May's Waterloo? Looking back, it's one of my better pieces of political analysis. The only part I got wrong was how long May's fall from power would take. I am a little annoyed about that - but I think, in retrospect, the 2 years it took for May to actually leave office was predictable once you appreciate various factors that I didn't think about back then. But that's for another time.
What do I think on the eve of this election? I have hopes and dreads and find objectivity very difficult. But it should be, because I am not - nor can I be - a disinterested observer. The stakes are too high.
So, If Johnson wins a majority the following will happen: the Withdrawal Bill will pass, the UK will leave the EU on January 31st 2020 and almost certainly we will end the transition period in December 2020 with no deal. Boris might deliver Brexit but he won't get it done and it will certainly do for him in the end.
On the other hand, if he loses then these will be important factors:
- Johnson is a terrible campaigner (he always has been)
- Johnson cannot withstand any scrutiny
- Tactical voting
- The effect of Election law on the reporting of Jeremy Corbyn
- Youth turnout
Here's the thing: Whilst polling points to a Conservative win; the evidence on the ground - such as how Johnson is booed and protested against, and Corbyn can draw a huge crowd in Bristol - points to Conservative support falling significantly. If Tory voter turnout falls (and predicted wins harm turnout if there's another factor, like say December weather), there is a lot of scope for a different result than what many expect.
None of this is certain. I think anyone who makes any prediction with certainty is fooling themselves. If they happen to get it right, this most basic of lessons will be lost and they'll claim superhuman wisdom or that it was blatantly obvious to everyone. This is just an example of confirmational bias.
What is certain however is that we are a very divided nation. This division is what allows such a failed and failing government to have any chance of re-election. The other key lesson is that lies (more than ever before) win votes. The staggering level of dishonesty and out-right fraud carried out (almost entirely) by one political party is a great danger to our democracy. This is not news; it's just the Leave Campaign in different clothes. In the long-term though, this is deeply, deeply worrying.
So, I do think that the 2017's election was May's Waterloo. For Johnson, this election was a strategy designed to win by dividing his opposition and continuing the big lies about what Brexit actually is. It might well work. If it does fail though, it will be because, since 2016, Leave have over-reached. A sensible (ish) Brexit has always been achievable but the unreasonableness of the extreme right-wing of the Tory party has always demanded more and more with no concession possibly being good enough. It's a classic revolution where the early leaders are denounced as traitors to the cause by those that follow.
So May's Waterloo - choosing to offer battle because of an erroneous belief that the enemy cannot unite and thus being caught fully engaged when it's too late to retreat. Johnson's over-reach - shooting for the moon because he believed his own propaganda and thought he really could build a rocket in his back garden? In a day or so, we will find out.
If Johnson loses, we can begin rebuilding our country. If he wins, the rebuild will be delayed and the starting point will be a lot worse.
AFZ
